1st Yankee prediction of 2012

Predictions sure to result in an Epic Failure.

So I think it’s time to introduce a new feature to this blog.  I’m calling it “Predictions sure to result in Epic Failure.”  I’m going to put my “vast” baseball knowledge to the test and start making predictions.    If my predictions don’t happen, then I’ve failed just like I said I would.  If predictions do happen, I look like a genius.  I can’t lose.

Today’s prediction is focusing on the Yankees 2012 Starting Rotation…

Six guys competing for five spots on the pitching rotation.  Out of those six, only two have a guaranteed spot.  Let’s look at the names:

CC Sabathia – Guaranteed spot on the rotation.  Ace of the team. Opening Day pitcher. Look for another 20-Win season with an ERA in the low 3.00s this year. ‘Nuff said.

Hiroki Kuroda – According to news outlets, Hiroki is also guaranteed a spot on the starting rotation. Huh?  HK has only had one winning season in the majors, and barely at that (8-7 in 2009).  He does have a career ERA in the 3.00s (3.45) and he does eat up innings (208).  He did play for the Dodgers that last 4 years so it’s possible he simply didn’t have the run support.  He should have plenty of run support with Yankees.

Phil Hughes – Let’s call him “The Great White Hope.” With an electrifying 2010 season in which he went 18-8 and was voted and All-Star, it was expected that he would improve on that… Or at least match it.  What we got in 2011 was not pretty at all.  Plagued with injuries, Phil went 5-5 and didn’t even remotely resemble the Phil Hughes of 2010.  He’s got something to prove this season and expect to see him return to 2010 numbers. 

Ivan Nova – I made the mistake last season of saying that Nova would be traded for Ubaldo Jimenez.  I still think Ubaldo is a great pitcher, but I’m glad Ivan is still with the Yankees.  I expect him to have a 15+ win season and lower his ERA to under 3.40.

Michael Pineda – Pineda is going into his sophomore season and the Yankees have high expectations of him.  I believe that the pressure of playing in New York is going to affect him. He will get a starting position out of spring training only to lose it 2 months into the season.

Freddy Garcia – This guy is going to have a Cinderella season.  I expect him to start the season in the bullpen, but he’ll be in the rotation when Pineda “loses” it.  He has experience and, if he has the patience, I believe he will also go 15+ wins this season.  He’s the one that’s going to keep the Yankees on track towards the post-season.

So, in conclusion, the 2012 Starting Day Rotation is going to look like this:

CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Ivan Nova, Phil Hughes, Michael Pineda

But expect it to look like this by All-Star Break

CC Sabathia, Ivan Nova, Hiroki Kuroda, Phil Hughes, Freddy Garcia

Of course, I could be totally wrong.

It wouldn't be the first time.

Obsession? Maybe.

*sniff, sniff*

Can you smell it?

*crack!*

Can you hear it?

Oh come on now!  I know you can.  The smell of freshly cut grass and the warmth of the spring sun on your face.  The crack of the bat as the ball is lined past the infield and the roar of the crowd as they cheer their team.

YES! Baseball is here.  (Oh, and coincidentally, Spring is around the corner.)

Yeah, yeah, I know what you’re saying. “Great, here come some more posts filled with Yankee filled nonsense.”  Well, if you are here, what else did you expect? Mark and Mercedes, the morning DJs from a local radio station, 94.1, were talking about obsessions this morning.  Mercedes said she is obsessed with the Yankees because she is watching Spring Training games.  If that is considered an obsession, then I’ve got a full-blown outbreak.  How bad is it?  Let me count the ways…

• I have a Yankees license plate frame.  Tame, I know, but it gets worse.
• My Twitter handle, @LasVegasYankee
• I order the Yankees Yearbook almost every year (when I can afford it.  They are getting expensive).
• I’ve got all the volumes of Yankeeography on DVD. And I’m constantly watching them.
• I order the MLB Extra Innings package every season (6 years and counting)
• I switched from Cox Cable to DirecTV just so I can get the YES Network.
• I also watch Spring Training games.  But I also watch “Yankee Classics” (reruns of classic games) whenever I can.
• My original ManCave* was painted Yankee Blue.
• Yankee Jerseys, got ‘em.  Seven (7) and counting.
• Yankee Memorabilia? I don’t have that much time to list it all. But I’m pretty sure I’ve got more than the average Yankee fan, but not as much as a hardcore fan.
• Autographs? Yeah, I got ‘em (Jeter, Rizzutto, Ford to name a few).

Is it bad? I don’t know. You tell me.

(One of several Yearbooks that I own.  This one being the oldest)

_____

* Original Mancave is now a rental home.  Haven't had a chance to set up the Mancave in the new house yet.

Project 365 - Day 3

Day 3 and I had a little more time on my hands so I decided to try my hand at props and staging.  Couldn't come up with anything till I started watching Prime 9. The Top 9 Teams of all time included 3 Yankees teams and then it hit me.  Empire... Empire... BAM! EMPIRE! 

Ok, seriously, there is less than 60 days before pitchers and catchers report and I'm having some serious withdrawal issues.

Again, comment and criticisms welcome.

What a finish!

And this is what it all boils down to.  Yeah, 161 games were played but none of that mattered.  In the greatest finish since The Play (UC-Stanford ’82), The Catch (49ers-Cowboys ’82), The Collapse (Yankees-Red Sox ’04)… Actually, scratch that last one. Nobody needs to be talking about that.  So, 161 games played and there are still 4 teams playing for 2 spots.  In all honesty, I was hoping the Ray and Sox would both win.  A 1-game playoff is always exciting (1978 anyone?) and it would have allowed the Red Sox at redemption.  Yeah, redemption since almost every 2011 MLB Prediction at the beginning of the season had the Red Sox winning the Division. So, not only do they not win the Division, they can’t even muster enough to force a 1-game playoff and at least nab the Wild Card.

I watched the games.  I was on the edge of my seat for the last few innings of both games.  Yes, I was cheering for the Rays and the Sox.  My wife thought I had lost my mind.  When my family reads this, they will probably think I’ve lost my mind.  Maybe I have, but the excitement was overwhelming.  And since we were in public, I couldn’t yell and cheer out loud. Talk about frustrating.  I’m glad I had my Twitter account to vent with.

Watching the game, I wonder. Did the Yankees throw the game in the end?  Did they give the Rays the opportunity to mount the comeback?  Yeah, it sounds crazy but walk with me for a minute on this.

1)      Attitude – Fact, the Yankees clinched.  Since there were no types of season records in play, this was a “meaningless” game.  When in a situation like, most people automatically change their attitude and take things down a few notches. 

2)      Starters – The game started with only 5 regular starters in the initial lineup.  By the end of the 7^th, 4 of those had been replaced.

3)      Relief – Girardi had already stated that he wouldn’t be using any relievers in the finale.  So, everyone knows that, no matter what, Mo won’t be in the game.  That’s sure to give opposing batter a boost in confidence.

4)      Exhaustion – Let’s face it, 162 games is a lot of games.  When you don’t clinch until 10 days before the end of the season, you are going to be tired.  Then you still gotta play at 100% to clinch the Division.  Yeah, very tiring.

5)      Opposition – Finally, you have to decide who would you want rather face in the ALDS.  Red Sox or Rays?  Yeah, I’d rather face the Rays because the Red Sox were really dialed in on the Yankees this season.

There you go.  Evidence, flimsy but evidence all the same, that the Yankees could have thrown the game.  But no matter, in the end it was one of the most exciting finishes to the season that I’ve seen in a long time.  I enjoyed watching each and every deciding game.

Congratulations Rays.  See you next season Sox.

(Associated Press)

Big Papi - "See you in the playoffs."

Manny - "No you won't."

Stay on target... Almost there...

As of this writing, DJ (Derek Jeter for you uncultured ones) is two hits shy of joining Club 3K (3000 hits).  Think about that for a minute.... Done? Ok. Most people don't realize how exclusive of a club this is.  The other big hitters club, the 500 Home Run Club, isn't as exclusive as it used to be.  There are at least a half-dozen 'Roiders in there and, let's face it, the whole "Chicks dig the long ball" thing is so passé. 

Anyway...

Back to Club 3K, I found it interesting that some of the bigger names in the game are in the club. My all-time favorite player, Lou Gehrig, not in. The original HR King, Babe Ruth, not in. Junior? Nope. Mantle? Negative. Dave Winfield, Rickey "Run, Rickey, Run" Henderson? Well, yeah, but they didn't hit #3000 with the Yankees (Twins & Padres respectively).  The only blemish in the Club is Rafael Palmeiro.

So not only is going to join the Club, DJ isn't going to stop at 3K. I really think he is going to be one of the top 10 in hits (3315+).  He has a contract till at least 2014. That's another 3 full years.  According to Baseball-Reference, DJ has averaged 206 hits a year over his career.  Barring further injury and extended slumps, 160-175 hits this season is not out of the question.  That should put him at about 3170 at the end of this season.  Throw in one more spectacular season (he has one more in him) at 193 hits and two seasons of +/- average seasons at 171 and 157 hits, that would put him at... carry the one, divide by the square root of his shoe size... around 3690 hits for his career.   That is good enough for 4th on the All-Time list behind Rose, Cobb and Aaron. 

Yet, there are still people that will insist that he is not a HoFer.  Really?  Let's take a look at his other numbers.

If he keeps his career average going, he will also join the 300 Home Run Club. Yeah, I know, it doesn't have the same ring as the 500 Home Run Club.  However, take a look at the big picture.  Only 130 players have it 300 home runs.  Yeah, that sounds like a lot when you think there are 750 baseball players (25-man roster X 30 teams), about 17%. However, when you realize that it's not 750, but closer to 17,150 guys that have played baseball since the 1800s, that percentage drops waaaaay down to 0.75%.  All of a sudden, 300 home runs is kinda impressive.  Oh, and one other thing, DJ really isn't a home run hitter. Kinda makes that stat that much more impressive.

One of my favorite stats, simply because Jathniel gets to talk in the 3rd person like one of his favorite players (Rickey Henderson), is the stolen base.  One of the greatest strategies of the game, the stolen base can get a player from 1st to 3rd quick-fast, in a hurry, and totally disrupt the pitcher's concentration.  JD already has 330. He gets another 10 this year and average 20 the next three years and that will put him at 400 swipes.  That will put him at #70 on the all-time list. Good company considering 25 of those 70 are in the Hall.

Let's see what else is on the list... 400 away from 10,000 at bats (25 members of that club)... on track for 2500+ games played (that'll put him in the top 50)... 12x All-Star... 5x World Series Champ... 5x Gold Glove... All-Star MVP... World Series MVP...

Seriously, if those aren't 1st Year Induction stats, I don't know what is.

Just saying...

JV